Friday’s Top 3 Plays: MSFT, BRCM, CMG

Microsoft Corp. (NASDAQ: MSFT)

Microsoft Corp. (MSFT) is a provider of innovative software, services and Internet technologies to consumers and businesses around the world. The Company operates in five business segments: Client, which offers Windows Vista comprising Home Basic, Home Premium, Ultimate, Business, Enterprise, and Starter editions; and Windows XP, including Professional, Home, Media Center, and Tablet PC editions; Server and Tools, which develops software server products, as well as software developer tools, services, and solutions consisting of Microsoft SQL Server, Visual Studio, Silverlight, System Center products, Forefront security products, Biz Talk Server, Microsoft Consulting Services and Premier product support services; Online Services Business, which provides online advertising platform; online information offerings; and email and instant messaging services; Microsoft Business Division, which offers Microsoft Office system products and Microsoft Dynamics business solutions; and Entertainment and Devices Division, which provides Xbox 360 console and games; Xbox Live; Zune; Mediaroom; consumer software and hardware products, such as mice and keyboards; Windows Mobile software and services platform; Windows Embedded device operating system; Windows Automotive; and the Microsoft Surface computing platform. MSFT had revenue of $58 billion at the end of fiscal year 2009, slightly below the previous year’s results.

Founded in 1975, MSFT is headquartered in Redmond, Washington.

Share Statistics

(23-Oct-09)

2008

2009

% Chg

Q4 ’08

Q4 ’09

% Chg

Symbol

MSFT

Revenue, $Mn

60,420

58,437

-3.28%

15,837

13,099

-17.29%

Current price

$28.02

Gross marg.

80.80%

79.20%

-160 b.p.

81.90%

80.26%

-164 b.p.

52wk Range:

14.87-29.35

Oper. margin

33.56%

Avg Vol (3m):

54,576,400

Net margin

29.26%

24.93%

-433 b.p.

27.13%

23.25%

-388 b.p.

Market Cap.

249.68B

Dil. Shares Outst.

8.91B

EPS, $

1.895

1.656

-12.61%

0.464

0.345

-25.65%

Source: Reuters.com, SEC Filings, FY ending June

Investment Highlights

Shares of MSFT were driven up on Friday after the Company posted better-than-expected quarterly results. The Company’s net income for the first quarter ended Sept. 30, 2009 came in at $3.57 billion, or 40 cents a share, beating analysts’ expectations of 32 cents a share, according to a poll by Thomson Reuters. This result came despite a 14% decline in sales from the same period of the prior year.

According to the Company’s press release, the fiscal quarter results reflect the deferral of $1.47 billion of revenue, an impact of 12 cents of diluted earnings per share, relating to the Windows 7 Upgrade Option program and sales of Windows 7 to OEMs and retailers before general availability. Adding back the deferred revenue, the Company noted that year-over-year decline would only be 4% while and EPS would total $0.52 per share, an increase of 8% over the same period of the prior year.

Commenting on the results, CFO Chris Liddell said in a statement, “We are very pleased with our performance this quarter and particularly by the strong consumer demand for Windows. We also maintained our cost discipline, which allowed us to drive strong earnings performance despite continued tough overall economic conditions.”

During Friday’s trading session, MSFT set a new 52-week high when it reached $29.35. Over this period, the share price is up 27.60%.

Technical Analysis

Moving Average

MSFT is trading above its 13 day moving average. This is considered to be the sign of a bullish trend. There is added weight to this indication because the moving average is rising and suggests that there has been buying interest in this stock.

MACD

The MACD for MSFT currently indicates a strong bullish signal for two reasons. First, the MACD is above the signal line, a 9day moving average. Second, the MACD is above 0 which implies that the underlying moving averages are trending higher.

Bollinger Bands

MSFT is trading near its upper Bollinger Band. This suggests that the stock price is high relative to its recent price action.

Source: http://www.scottrade.com

Broadcom Corp. (NASDAQ: BRCM)

Broadcom Corp. (BRCM), a major technology innovator and global leader in semiconductors for wired and wireless communications, offers a portfolio of system-on-a-chip (SoC) and software solutions to manufacturers of computing and networking equipment, digital entertainment and broadband access products, and mobile devices. It hold over 3,650 U.S. and 1,450 foreign patents and more than 7,750 additional pending patent applications. It also boasts of one of the broadest intellectual property portfolios addressing both wired and wireless transmission of addressing both wired and wireless transmission of voice, video, data and multimedia. It markets its products in the United States through direct sales force, distributors, and manufacturers’ representatives. The Company also sells its products internationally through regional offices, as well as through a network of independent distributors and representatives in Asia, Australia, Europe and North America.

Founded in 1991, BRCM is headquartered in Irvine, California.

Share Statistics

(23-Oct-09)

2007

2008

% Chg

Q2 ’08

Q2 ’09

% Chg

Symbol

BRCM

Revenue, $Mn

3,776.4

4,658.1

23.35%

1,200.9

1,039.9

-13.41%

Current price

$28.50

Gross marg.

51.48%

52.49%

101 b.p.

53.82%

50.12%

-370 b.p.

52wk Range:

13.15-31.20

Oper. margin

-2.29%

3.70%

1.12%

-258 b.p.

Avg Vol (3m):

9,116,440

Net margin

5.65%

4.61%

-104 b.p.

11.23%

1.29%

-994 b.p.

Market Cap.

14.13B

Dil. Shares Outst.

429.80M

EPS, $

0.425

0.853

100.71%

0.265

0.032

-87.92%

Source: Reuters.com, SEC Filings, FY ending December

Investment Highlights

BRCM posted Q3 EPS of 16 cents, a 49% decline from the year-ago period. Excluding certain items, BRCM would have posted EPS of 40 cents, above consensus estimates of 33 cents. Revenues for the quarter fell 3.4% year-over-year to $1.25 billion, but is above the consensus estimates of $1.16 billio

“Broadcom executed well in the third quarter, generating revenue growth of over 20% sequentially for the second quarter in row,” said BRCM president and CEO Scott A. McGregor. “This strong revenue growth is well above the semiconductor industry growth rate, and was driven by a combination of our target markets continuing to recover, new product ramps and the breadth of Broadcom’s product line, continued McGregor.”

The Company, however, is warning that its fourth quarter revenues could be flat versus the prior quarter, which disappointed many investors. As of last close on October 23, 2009, BRCM closed at $28.50, 8.65% below its 52-week high of $31.20, set on September 23, 2009.

Technical Analysis

Moving Average

BRCM closed below its 13 day moving average on October 22. This is generally considered to be an indication of a bearish trend.

MACD

BRCM’s MACD is indicating a weak bearish signal. Although the indicator is above the critical level of 0, which implies that the underlying moving averages are bullish, the MACD has crossed below its 9day moving average or signal line. This suggests that positive momentum has begun to slow.

Bollinger Bands

BRCM is trading within its Bollinger Bands. This is a normal condition and suggests that the stock is neither overbought nor oversold relative to the recent price action.

Source: http://www.scottrade.com

Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc. (NYSE: CMG)

Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc. (CMG) is a developer and operator of fast-casual, fresh Mexican food restaurants in 33 states throughout the United States, the District of Columbia and Ontario, Canada. The Company’s restaurants serve a focused menu of tacos, burritos, salads and burrito bowls. CMG competes in a category of dining called “fast-casual,” which offers full table service but promises a higher quality of food and atmosphere than a fast food restaurant. This type of restaurant is considered to be the fastest growing segment of the restaurant industry. The Company opened 26 new restaurants during the third quarter of 2009 and operated 911 restaurants as of the end of the quarter ended September 30, 2009.

Founded in 1993, CMG is based in Denver, Colorado.

Share Statistics

(23-Oct-09)

2007

2008

% Chg

Q2 ’08

Q2 ’09

% Chg

Symbol

CMG

Revenue, $Mn

1,085.8

1,332

22.67%

340.8

388.8

14.08%

Current price

$82.35

Gross marg.

22.34%

21.55%

-79 b.p.

22.45%

26.03%

358 b.p.

52wk Range:

36.86-98.66

Oper. margin

11.02%

9.31%

14.74%

543 b.p.

Avg Vol (3m):

537,694

Net margin

6.50%

5.87%

-63 b.p.

7.19%

9.10%

191 b.p.

Market Cap.

2.61B

Dil. Shares Outst.

14.60M

EPS, $

2.277

2.562

12.52%

0.771

1.137

47.47%

Source: Reuters.com, SEC Filings, FY ending December

Investment Highlights

For the third quarter ended September 30, 2009, CMG announced it earned $34.5 million, or $1.08 per share, up from a profit of $19.5 million, or 59 cents per share, a year ago. Compared to the third quarter of 2008, revenue rose 13.8% to $387.6 million while comparable restaurant sales increased 2.7%. The Company attributed the increase in revenue to new restaurants not in the comparable base and a 2.7% increase in comparable restaurant sales in the third quarter. Comparable restaurant sales growth was reportedly due to the impact of menu price increases partially offset by a decline in customer visits. Net income for the third quarter $34.5 million, up 76.9% from the year-ago quarter, while diluted earnings per shares rose 83.1% to $1.08.

“Our performance continues to be driven by our efficient business model, and our emphasis on doing just a few things, but always working hard to do them better. This approach to running our business enables us to continue to deliver impressive financial performance to our shareholders even in this challenging environment,” said Steve Ells, CMG founder, chairman, and Co-CEO.

While the Company posted a stronger-than-expected third-quarter profit and said it continued its previously announced plans to add 120 to 130 new locations next year, shares were driven down on a disappointing expansion forecasts for 2010. According to the Company, a quarter of new locations will be built in its smaller store format, which costs less to build but also typically draws fewer customers.

Commenting on this, Wedbus analyst Rachel Rothman wrote in a research note published Friday, “In our view, the strategy signals the potential saturation of larger format restaurants and could cause investors to question (Chipotle’s long-term) profitable growth trajectory.”

Technical Analysis

As of last close on October 23, 2009, CMG closed at $82.35, 16.53% below its 52-week high of $98.66, set on September 29, 2009.

Moving Average

CMG is currently below its 13 day moving average. This bearish sign is even more significant because the moving average is also trending lower.

MACD

The MACD for CMG currently indicates a strong bearish signal for two reasons. First, the MACD is below the signal line, a 9day moving average. Second, the MACD is below the critical level of 0, which implies that the underlying moving averages are trending lower.

Bollinger Bands

CMG is trading near its lower Bollinger Band. This suggests that the stock price is low relative to its recent price action.

Source: http://www.scottrade.com

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