Archive for October 2008

expandUnlock Value With Marathon Oil

Jim Cramer told viewers of his “Mad Money” TV show Friday that he might have found an oil stock with huge hidden potential. That oil stock is Marathon Oil (MRO). He pointed out that Marathon Oil operates both an exploration and production business and a refinery. Currently, Wall Street values the entire company at $29 a share. But Cramer says the refinery is worth $20 to $24 a share alone. He says the exploration and production units could be worth between $49 and $73. Cramer mentioned that MRO’s exploration unit would be an attractive stand-alone company because it currently has 1.2 billion barrels of proven reserves. Also, the company’s refining business is the fifth largest. He told viewers he wants them to think about buying the stock. Even if the company doesn’t split up its segments the stock has been hit so hard it could be a takeover candidate for another company. Get the scoop on tomorrow’s hottest trade ideas – TODAY! BeaconEquity.com PREMIER PICKS have an amazing track record. Join this select group and ride the profit wave!

expandDividend Play – Boardwalk Pipeline

Cramer recommended high-yielding dividend stock Boardwalk Partners (BWP), a master limited partnership that controls two natural gas pipelines.He said BWP is yielding 8.25% this year and is expected to increase to 9% next year. He says Boardwalk is also a growth story and their biggest shareholder is the Tish family-controlled Loews (L), which holds 70% of BWP and expects to invest another $1 billion by next year to help expand the company’s pipeline system. BWP also has three projects that are expected to double its revenues by 2012. Cramer explained that every time the company expands it increases the chances that the dividend will go up. That’s why Cramer is bullish on BWP. Chat and share ideas with the best small cap traders LIVE each day free at Stocknetworkonline.com

expandJim Cramer’s Lightning Round

Bullish
Duke Energy (DUK), Merck (MRK), Deere & Co (DE), Weyerhaeuser (WY), Philip Morris International (PM), Altria (MO) and Staples (SPLS).
Bearish
Constellation Energy (CEG) and Office Depot (ODP). Join the fastest growing community of small cap investors at Stockhideout.com

expandFast Money Recap

Word On The Street
Dylan Ratigan hosted CNBC’s “Fast Money” show Friday night. He started the show with a discussion of how the market action today was tied closely to what happened with shares of Goldman Sachs Group (GS). Ratigan also pointed out that the financial crisis problems are now diminishing. Joe Terranova said that everyone’s expeditions are that the month of November will give us better performance than October. Tim Seymour explained that the re-balancing story is in play. He says “if you look at the calendar, November is a very good move to see allocations start to move in, but I still have a lot of worries.” Guy Adami told viewers that fundamentals are coming back. Zachary Karabell says “we shouldn’t be trading this equity market as a proxy for the economy.”
JPMorgan Talk
Ratigan moved the conversation to the big move higher in JPMorgan Chase (JPM)after the bank rolled out a plan to deal with a large piece of their mortgage portfolio. Terranova mentioned that JPMorgan Chase has taken $110 billion in mortgages and readjusted them. He says “the rest of the banks will have to follow JPMorgan’s lead.” Adami said viewers should look at the “best in breed” banks like U.S. Bancorp (USB), JPMorgan Chase (JPM) and Wells Fargo (WFC).
Commodity Talk
Ratigan mentioned that crude oil had its worst month ever and most hedge funds in the commodity space have been forced to close up shop. Terranova pointed out that we have seen a massive liquidation in oil by hedge funds. Adami said it’s a better play to be in the energy and commodity equities like Exxon Mobil (XOM) Freeport McMoRan (FCX) over the actual commodity itself. Seymour explained that the move in commodities this move was also tied to the move in the U.S. dollar.
GM Merger
Ratigan brought up the news that the General Motors (GM)/Chrysler merger has hit a snag. Adami said the Treasury can’t finance this deal because it will cost people their jobs. Karabell said the auto industry is an example of something that has been allowed to live to long. He says “cars don’t have to be made in Detroit by these companies.”
Money Flow
Charles Biderman, president of Trimtabs Investment Research joined the crew to discuss money flows in and out of capital markets. He told viewers that this has been a hedge fund bubble created by higher energy prices. He says “one trillion dollars in extra money that went into hedge funds created a bull market for every asset class around the planet.” He said we won’t get back to the same level because the money coming out of real estate has stopped.
Trade The Vote
Strategic investor Dennis Gartman joined the traders to talk about how to trade the outcome of the presidential election. Gartman said the market believes that Obama is going to win. He pointed out that the best stock markets come when you have a Democratic president. Terranova disagreed and said the best markets come when you have a Democratic president combined with checks and balances in the Congress. Gartman explained that if Obama raises the capital gains tax, it will send the wrong signal to investors around the world. He says “capital goes to where it is treated the best.” He also mentioned that if Obama wins we are going to see a much more regulated environment that will last for a long time.
Media Outlook
Anthony DiClemente, Barclays Capital entertainment and broadcasting analyst joined the traders to talk about the media complex. He said that advertising dollars are way down. He told viewers he wants to upgrade media names like CBS (CBS), Disney (DIS), News Corp. (NWS) and General Electric (GE) but as you look out the adverting and consumer dependency is difficult to monetize at this time. He explained that Google (GOOG) and Apple (AAPL) have shown that the best forms of distribution are very important. He said he doesn’t know how investors can buy CBS when numbers are going to come down in the next few quarters.
POPS&DROPS
Pops- Exxon Mobil (XOM) advanced 4%. Karabell said Exxon has been a laggard in the energy space for years, despite the fact the stock held up this month.
Drops- Hartford Financial (HIG) plunged 75%. Adami said the best thing about Hartford was how Bank of America downgraded the stock today. He says “thanks for nothing.” General Motors (GM) fell 39%. Karabell said he was surprised it only dropped 40% this month. Citigroup (C) lost 33%. Terranova said look for Citigroup to entertain some type of deal with either Goldman Sachs Group (GS) or Morgan Stanley (MS). iShares Emerging Markets ETF (EEM) traded down 25%. Seymour says “valuations are cheaper in emerging markets than they were back in 2002 at the beginning of another huge 5-year run.” Aloca (AA) plunged 49%. Adami pointed out that Alcoa has suspended their stock repurchasing program.
Trader Radar
Shares of J.M. Smucker (SJM) were among the most active names on the NYSE Friday.
Final Trade
Seymour likes the UltraShort Emerging Markets ProShares (EEV). Adami recommended Novartis (NVS). Get the scoop on tomorrow’s hottest trade ideas – TODAY! BeaconEquity.com PREMIER PICKS have an amazing track record. Join this select group and ride the profit wave!

expandPHFB Bottom Buster Chart

Looking for a bottom buster chart? PHFB is setting up off a double bottom bounce at .06 support levels. Resistance at .133 .151 .19 ahead. Keep this stock on your radar screens tomorrow imo

expandCramer Bullish On The Rate Cut

“Interest rate cuts do matter,” Jim Cramer told the fans of his “Mad Money” TV show Wednesday. Cramer dispelled the nay-sayers and said rate cuts are exactly what the markets need. He explained that the only two groups of people who don’t want rate cuts, are the academics and the short-sellers. Cramer told viewers that the Federal Reserve is on board at last. He explained that the U.S. rate cut will make it easier for Europe and China to cut rates. He says the market rally will continue of the rest of the globe cuts rates. If it doesn’t happen though, than all bets are off. Cramer explained that rate cuts will help lower American business and consumer debt linked to the prime rate, which is based off the fed funds rate. A lower prime rate will help businesses and people borrow money to keep the economy going. The lower rates will also benefit banks as the yield curve steepens. Cramer said he also supports the possible plan by the U.S. government to buy 3 million residential mortgages. He explained it could help stabilize the housing market by mid-2009. “The move would finally allow the housing market to stabilize and stop the relentless home price depreciation spiral,” he said. Get the scoop on tomorrow’s hottest trade ideas – TODAY! BeaconEquity.com PREMIER PICKS have an amazing track record. Join this select group and ride the profit wave!

expandCEO Interview Trinity Industries

Cramer spoke with Timothy Wallace, chairman, president and CEO of Trinity Industries (TRN) about his company’s prospects. Wallace said business is strong, despite the company’s recent decision to suspend earnings guidance. He explained the suspension of guidance was due to the company’s inability to predict its long-term earnings and not because the company sees an earnings miss around the corner. He pointed out that Trinity is seeing some slowing in growth for their railcar and construction products, but their barge and wind tower segments are preforming well. Commenting on the credit crisis, Wallace said the company hasn’t seen any order cancellations, but they have experienced some delays caused about the tight credit markets. Cramer held off form calling Trinity a buy or sell. He said he’s worried the firm could see some problems from tight credit and lower oil prices. Despite his concerns, Cramer said he doesn’t forsee big losses in the future for the company. Wind Stocks are all the rage this year.  Read why WNEA may be the single best play in this sector today!

expandJim Cramer’s Am I Diversified

The first caller was long these stocks: Kohl’s (KSS), Harley Davidson (HOG), Dish Network (DISH), BCE (BCE) and Microsoft (MSFT). Cramer said this portfolio was diversified, but he told the caller to sell HOG, DISH and BCE. The second caller’s portfolio included: Disney (DIS), ExxonMobil (XOM), Johnson & Johnson (JNJ), 3M (MMM) and Norfolk Southern (NSC). Cramer said this was one of the greatest portfolios he’s seen in a long time. The third caller had the following stocks: Bank of America (BAC), Duke Energy (DUK), Kinder Morgan Partners , Eli Lily (LLY) and Unilever (UL). Cramer said this portfolio had too many energy stocks with Kinder Morgan and Duke. He told the caller to sell one of the energy stocks and buy a transport stock. Join the fastest growing community of small cap investors at Stockhideout.com

expandJim Cramer’s Lightning Round

Bullish
Cubist Pharmaceuticals (CBST), Duke Energy (DUK) and Telefonica (TEF).
Bearish
The Bank of Ireland (IRE), MDU Resources Group (MDU) and Allied Capital (ALD). Join the fastest growing community of small cap investors at Stockhideout.com

expandFast Money Recap

Word On The Street
Dylan Ratigan hosted CNBC’s “Fast Money” show Wednesday night. He kicked the show off with a discussion of General Electric (GE). He explained that CEO Jeffrey Immelt made some comments at a dinner in Spain that had nothing to do with the company’s future expectations, but caused GE shares and the stock market to drop. Jeff Macke said the market is easy to take down because it’s built on a house of straw.
Rate Cut Trades
Ratigan moved the conversation to the Federal Reserve’s decision to cut rates by 50-basis points to 1% for the federal funds rate. Tim Seymour explained its enormous news that the Fed also announced it plans to give emerging market governments’ access to their balance sheet. He told viewers to look at playing these developments with the iShares MSCI South Korea ETF (EWY), iShares MSCI Brazil (EWZ) and iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF (EEM).
Brazil trade
Pete Najarian told viewers that there are some great opportunities in this market and traders should look to use volatility to their advantage. He says “look at the coal, steel and agriculture names which are beginning to base.” He said he bought Petroleo Brasileiro (PBR) for a play on the energy space and Brazil.
U.S. Government Trade
Ratigan asked the traders how they would play alongside the U.S. government. Guy Adami said buy the good banks like JPMorgan Chase (JPM), Wells Fargo (WFC) and U.S. Bancorp (USB). He says “banks are set up to have the most profitable period of all-time.” Seymour pointed out that the yield curve is steepening which will make banks more profitable. Macke joked “I would want to run General Motors (GM) if I was going to trade with the government.”
Commodity Talk
Ratigan brought up the move higher in commodities and the large fall in the U.S. dollar today. Adami told viewers to avoid the commodity sector right now. Najarian pointed out that the Oil Service HOLDRs ETF (OIH) is up 25% in two days, so investors need to be careful. Seymour pointed out that China cut rates, which will be bullish for commodities in the longer term.
Rate Cut Chat
Mike Darda, chief economist at MKM Partners joined the traders to discuss if lower rates will save the economy. He mentioned the rate cut was positive and the Fed is pushing a massive amount of liquidity into the system. He said the real problem is the fourth quarter which will be the real “sticker shock” for the economy. He says “we will see a long slow road to normalcy for the credit markets and for the real economy.” Darda expects to see news for the real economy to get much worse before it gets better. He explained its different now with the Fed funds rate at 1% then it was 5 years ago at the same rate.
Fed Failures
William Fleckenstein, president of Fleckenstein Capital joined the crew to talk about how the Fed is making the same mistakes again. He said the Fed’s “operational philosophy” has been that they can do no wrong with target interest rates, but all that has caused is excessive risk taking. He says “the Fed should target the money supply and credit growth, which are loose variations of the gold standard, instead of targeting interest rates.” Fleckenstein explained that right now we have no self-regulating aspect to the Fed which has done nothing but create bubbles. He told viewers that the consequences of the Fed printing so much money will be “severe” and probably cause higher rates in the future.
Inside Pete’s Head
Ratigan started a new segment called “Instant Replay” which will look to get inside Najarian’s head during the trading day to determine how and why he makes a move. Najarian explained that Microsoft (MSFT) made a big spike around $23 per share today after traders began to purchase a large amount of upside call options for November and December. He told viewers he bought the stock and sold premium into the move as volatility spiked up.
GM-Chrysler Tie-Up
The traders spoke with CNBC’s Phil LeBeau on whether a merger between General Motors (GM) and Chrysler makes sense for the economy. LeBeau says “the deal is all but a done deal.” He said General Motors is going to get $10 billion from the U.S. government to complete the merger. He explained that the merger will give GM a lifeline until 2010. However, he expects the company to cut jobs for a good chunk of people.
POPS&DROPS
Pops- Chesapeake Energy (CHK) rose 6% ahead of their earnings report set for Thursday. Najarian said every time this stock trades below $20 per share it spikes higher. Legg Mason (LM) soared 30% after the asset management company beat estimates by 45%. Macke says “the move was huge and impressive.” Apple Computer (AAPL) jumped 4%. Adami explained that Sanford C. Bernstein & Co. came out and said Apple should use their cash to buy back the stock. First Solar (FSLR) surged 16% in after-hours trading. The alternative energy company said it doubled revenues and income for the third-quarter. Najarian says “you have to like what is going on at First Solar.”
Drops- Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) dropped 4% after JPMorgan downgraded the stock, saying it’s overvalued. Adami mentioned that Barron’s recently said the stock was the cheapest it’s been in ten years. He says “somebody is wrong, but I don’t know who it is.” Kraft Foods (KFT) fell 1%. Seymour mentioned that Kraft is attractive because its cost basis is dropping and they will not cut costs anytime soon. Sony (SNE) traded down 4% after the consumer electronics maker said quarterly profits plunged 72%. Seymour said nobody is buying electronics and also stronger yen will make for a nasty formula for Sony.
Trader Radar
Shares of Williams-Sonoma (WSM) were among the most active names on the NYSE Wednesday.
Final Trade
Adami told viewers to sell 9500 on the Dow if you see it Thursday. Seymour said play the Korean banks such as KB Financial Group (KB) and Woori Finance (WF). Najarian says “play Energy Conversion Devices (ENER) off of First Solar’s (FSLR) earnings.” Get the scoop on tomorrow’s hottest trade ideas – TODAY! BeaconEquity.com PREMIER PICKS have an amazing track record. Join this select group and ride the profit wave!