Archive for January 2008

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Word On The Street
Wall Street experienced some wild volatility on Thursday with the Dow swinging 450 points intraday. The Dow was able to finish in the green up 207 points and the Nasdaq finished up 40 points. Karen Finerman explained that she is very skeptical about this rally and she thinks the action reeks of window dressing. She disclosed she shorted Capital One Financial Corporation (COF) at the close today. In Jeff Macke’s opinion, the market felt like panic buying on Thursday. He advised investors to respect a market that doesn’t sell off when it has every reason to. Guy Adami mentioned that the financial stocks are leading and that is a bullish. Google Inc. (NASDAQ: GOOG) reported fourth-quarter profits that missed Wall Street estimates. The stock fell 7% after hours on the news. Najarian says Google’s revenues and profits were unbelievable but the stock fell because the company doesn’t give guidance on earnings. He thinks Google will rebound and be in positive territory Friday. Adami thinks valuations are reasonable for Google and he would look to buy the stock. Motorola Inc. (MOT) announced that they may spin off their mobile phone division. The stock traded up 12% after hours on the news. Finerman thinks that Carl Icahn will be happy about this. Macke wonders why Motorola would sell their best division. Financial stocks put in a strong performance Thursday after bond insurer MBIA Inc. (MBI) said it will be able to maintain its ‘AAA’ rating. According to Adami, if you want to play financials look at Wachovia Corporation (WB). Najarian says investors should raise their exposure in bank stocks like Financial Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLF), Wells Fargo & Company (WFC) and U.S. Bancorp (USB). Retail stocks like Target Corporation (TGT), The Home Depot Inc. (HD) and Wal-Mart Stores Inc. (WMT) helped lead the The Retail HOLDRS Trust (RTH) up 4%. Macke explained that retail stocks received help from a Deutsche Bank upgrade of the sector. Finerman disclosed she sold a portion of her stakes in retail stocks like Wal-Mart and J.C. Penny Company Inc. (JCP) but she didn’t sell any of her position in Crocs Inc. (CROX). Adami agrees it’s time to take profits in the retail sector, but he still thinks Home Depot will outperform. Transport stocks put in a strong performance Thursday. Adami recommends investors look at early recovery play Frontline Ltd. (FRO). Finerman would like to see lower prices in the railroad sector before she gets interested. MasterCard Incorporated (MA) explodes up 14% after reporting strong quarterly earnings. Adami says don’t chase MA now but look to buy it on dips. Seven Wall Street firms upgraded Alliance Data Systems Corporation (ADS). Finerman thinks it will be hard for ADS to win its lawsuit against The Blackstone Group L.P. (BX). According to Najarian, ADS looks awfully cheap. Najarian noted unusual options activity in Commercial Metals Company (CMC). He explained that the June $30 call options traded over 10,000 contracts before noon all from the buy side.
New Way To Play Commodities
Ashmead Pringle the founder and president of GreenHaven Commodity Services joined the “Fast Money” crew to discus a new way to play commodities. Pringle explained that on Friday a new fund will open under the ticker symbol GCC on the Amex that will track a basket of 17 commodities. The fund will be named the Greenhaven Continuous Commodity Index Fund and the basket will include equally weighted positions in (corn, wheat, soybeans, live cattle, lean hogs, gold, platinum, silver, copper, cocoa, coffee, sugar, cotton, orange juice, crude oil, heating oil and natural gas).
Proxy Fight Trade
According to Finerman, she received a phone call on Thursday and was told that this year could be a very busy proxy season. She spoke to one of the leading proxy advisory firms and she was told that they have already signed up 24 proxy fights. Finerman says that is twice what the firm normally does. She would look to play the proxy season with Broadridge Financial Services (BR), Lazard Ltd. (LAZ), Greenhill & Co. Inc. (GHL) and Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (GS). Adami also likes Lazard. Macke says he is getting interested in Wendy’s International Inc. (WEN).
Simmons & Company International Interview
Mattew Simmons, Chairman of Simmons & Company International, joined the “Fast Money” crew to discuss his take on the energy markets. According to Simmons, Exxon Mobil Corporation (XOM) and Chevron Corp. (CVX) will report first rate profits with oil prices so high. He thinks the bigger story for the oil space is the lack of growth for the top 5 firms and the rise in spending. Simmons thinks the equipment & engineering sectors for the oil space are set to see some big growth, because the large oil firms need to upgrade their infrastructure. Adami thinks the play is to buy Jacobs Engineering Group Inc. (JEC) and Flowserve Corporation (FLS).
Exchange Trade
Volatility and volumes are increasing around the world as liquidity pours into the global markets. What is the trade? Nasdaq Stock Market Inc. (NDAQ) CEO Bob Greifeld joined the “Fast Money” crew to discuss his take on the exchanges. Greifeld explained that the Nasdaq has seen record volumes on multiple days this year and the volatility has been great for his firm. He mentioned that when volumes are high customers flock to his exchange, because it’s known for its high quality. Greifeld says he has four acquisitions he is looking to close soon and he isn’t interested in the NYMEX Holdings Inc. (NMX). Lastly, he explained that even in bear markets he doesn’t see volumes declining.
Face2Face
Scott from Washington writes, “Everyone agrees gold is good right now but you were saying you would favor individual sticks instead of the ETF. Could you give me a couple names that you like?” Najarian says if you like gold go with Newmont Mining Corporation (NEM) and Barrick Gold Corporation (AGX). Mike from Missouri writes, “Cisco Systems Inc. (CSCO) and EMC Corporation (EMC) don’t seem to be doing anything but going down. Is this a buying opportunity to increase my positions or should I be getting out of these stocks?” Adami likes both stocks at these levels.
POPS&DROPS
POPS- Audible Inc. (ADBL) exploded up 22%. Macke explained that Amazon.com bought ADBL for $300 million. CVS Caremark Corporation (CVS) traded up 8%. Adami would trade CVS at your own risk. Starwood Hotels & Resorts Worldwide Inc. (HOT) traded up 5%. Finerman says nice day in a not so nice year for HOT. Mattel Inc. (MAT) traded up 11%. Macke prefers Hasbro Inc. (HAS) over MAT. Raytheon Company (RTN) traded up 3%. Adami says he loves this stock. Pzena Investment Management Inc. (PZN) exploded up 22%. Finerman couldn’t explain why PZN was up so much.
DROPS- Adobe Systems Incorporated (ADBE) traded down 3%. Najarian mentioned that a Jefferies & Co analyst downgraded ADBE. Cadence Design Systems Inc. (CDNS) plunged 33%. Najarian explained that CDNS doesn’t have a lot of orders.
Trader Radar
Amazon.com Inc. (NASDAQ: AMZN) traded five times its average daily volume Thursday.
Final Trade
Macke says buy Google Inc. (NASDAQ: GOOG) between $515-$520 but sell the stock if it drops below $500. Adami thinks MacDonald’s Corporation (MCD) looks very interesting. Finerman recommends Broadridge Financial Solutions (BR). Najarian says buy Alpha Natural Resources Inc. (ANR).

expandJim Cramer’s Am I Diversified?

Altria Group Inc. (MO), Pfizer Inc. (PFE), Apache Corporation (APA), Citigroup Inc. (C) and The Mosaic Company (MOS). This portfolio was applauded by Jim. Sirius Satellite Radio Inc. (SIRI), Caterpillar Inc. (CAT), MercadoLibre Inc. (MELI), Lowe’s Companies Inc. (LOW) and Sears Holding Corporation (SHLD). SHLD and LOW are competiting companies so drop LOW and look to get into a medical company like Hologic Inc. (HOLX). BioMarin Pharmaceuticals Inc. (BMRN), Yamana Gold Inc. (AUY), Petroleo Brasileiro S.A. (PBR), The St. Joe Company (JOE) and Schering-Plough Corporation (SGP). Two drug companies are here and Cramer does not like this.

expandJim Cramer’s Lightning Round

Bullish
Goodrich Corporation (GR), Corning Incorporated (GLW), The Mosaic Company (MOS), Rubicon Technology Inc. (RBCN), Caterpillar Inc. (CAT) and ING Groep N.V. (ING).
Bearish
Excel Maritime Carriers Ltd. (EXM), Martha Stewart Living Omnimedia Inc. (MSO), Tootsie Roll Industries Inc. (TR), Silicon Laboratories (SLAB), Danaher Corporation (DHR) and China Mobile Ltd. (CHL).
LIGHTNING VIDEO

expandHologic Inc. CEO Interview

Hologic Inc. (HOLX) is a stock Jim has been talking up for some time, CEO Jack Cumming joined the show. HOLX owns close to 60% of the U.S. market in digital mammography. The closest competitor is at 30%. A recent report came out that said this procedure was done but Cumming is bullish on the company’s future. He told us “everything is going digital” and over the next three to five years 70% to 80% of the 14,000 systems in use will be. HOLX just logged its biggest ever quarter for international business. They are expecting to go 3-D by 2010 and by this time the machines sold in 2003 will be ready for replacement. The integration with Cytyc is making huge strides for the company. Cramer says HOLX is going higher.
CEO VIDEO

expandSell Block: Buy Retail

The Dow sold off on the day after a major rate cut for the second week. After the index climbed to finish in positive territory so the decline should not have happened at all. Cramer blamed skittish traders for the down turn but the market is turning up and he told us that when it is caught up with in six months we can sell the stocks we are buying now for a hefty profit. Cramer cited specifically Citigroup Inc. (C), Bank of America Corporation (BAC), Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (GS), J.C. Penny Company Inc. (JCP) and Polo Ralph Lauren Corporation (RL). JCP and RL are collaborating on a new venture and it looks to be huge but both are down. CEO Mike Ullman from JCP expects this collection to be a billion dollar concept and Cramer believes him.
SELL VIDEO

expandThe Walt Disney Company On Sale

Tuesday’s rally was missed by The Walt Disney Company (DIS) thanks to a downgrade by Citigroup Inc. (C) which was “dead wrong.” Now DIS is on sale based on the theme parks, energy costs, weak housing and slowing consumer spending. Cramer noted that this division is only 22% of their business though. The downgrade only came after we bottomed and turned the corner. DIS is in cable properties, broadcasting, DVD sales, film and more so the stock is cheap. Theme parks are said to be better than last year at this time as well. DIS is liked for the next 12 to 18 months, and Cramer said the next ten years.

expandJim Cramer’s Stop Trading

We were told to avoid bond insurers MBIA Inc. (MBI) and Ambac Financial Group Inc. (ABK) on Stop Trading today. When the troubles are so widely known it is over, Cramer said he would never own these stocks and referred to them as a “moral hazard.” He told us to go buy a The Black & Decker Corporation (BDK) while joking. Pointed to were The Ryland Group Inc. (RYL) and Whirlpool Corporation (WHR) while ramping in this market.

expandFast Money

Word On The Street
The Federal Reserve slashed rates by 50 basis points on Wednesday bringing the fed funds rate to 3%. The Dow was up triple digits intra-day, but closed the trading session down 37 points. The Nasdaq finished down 9 points and the S&P 500 closed down 6 points. Water was thrown on the post-Fed rally after Fitch Ratings downgraded FGIC, Ambac Financial Group Inc. (ABK) and MBIA Inc. (MBIA). Guy Adami told investors to buy bank stocks like Wachovia Corporation (WB) on any dips. Pete Najarian mentioned he bought a downside put and sold an upside call on the Financial Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLF) Wednesday. Jeff Macke hopes the Fed will just go away for awhile and let the market work. Starbucks Corporation (SBUX) falls 1% after hours as the coffee giant lowered its profit forecast. Macke likes the job CEO Howard Schultz is doing and he would buy the stock at $18. Adami likes MacDonald’s Corporation (MCD) for a buy around $50. Amazon.com Inc. (AMZN) forth-quarter profits soar, but shares fall 11% after hours on margin concerns. Macke explained that the numbers were better than so-so but in this market everything is being taken down. Eli Lilly & Company (LLY) and the government are in talks to explore a settlement over the marketing of Zyprexa. Najarian explained that LLY made a ton of money off of Zyprexa and the firm will likely continue to fight for a settlement. He would continue to avoid the big pharma names because of the negative press surrounding many of the firms. Adami likes Merck & Co. Inc. (MRK) valuation and he would be a buyer.
Google Earnings Trade
Google Inc. (NASDAQ: GOOG) is set to report earnings Thursday after the market close. What is the trade? Adami explained that this is the first quarter that Wall Street firms have downgraded the stock ahead of the earnings report. He thinks the stock is setting up as a technical trade to the long side, but it could drop 50-75 points if Google says anything bad. Macke says he doesn’t like the tape here or Google. He explained no matter what Google says it will probably go down. Najarian thinks Google could surprise Wall Street and he likes the stock ahead of the report. He says the best way to play Google is to put on call options spread.
Dividend Trade
A dividend increase doesn’t always mean that the financial standing of a company is in great shape. Finerman highlighted four stocks that raised their dividend and then went down big after the hike. MBIA Inc. (MBIA) hiked then went down 78%, Ambac Financial Group Inc. (ABK) fell 86%, Northern Rock plc fell 89% and New Century Financial fell 99%. In Finerman’s opinion, the dividend increase from Lehman Brothers Holding Inc. (LEH) doesn’t mean much. She disclosed she is staying short LEH with put options. Adami was very skeptically of the timing of the Lehman dividend increase and stock buyback announcement in front of the Federal Reserve meeting.
Chartology
The “Fast Money” crew was joined by Jason Pestricelli, of TD Ameritrade and Dennis Gartman, founder of The Gartman Letter. Pestricelli explained the S&P 500 futures were moving down in after hours trading on heavy volume. He says this indicates that Thursday’s open will be lower for the stock market. According to Gartman, the fed was given up completely on fighting inflation with Wednesday’s rate cut and is only concerned about fighting weakness in the economy. He feels that the fed’s actions are terribly bearish for stocks going forward. Gartman disclosed he is long gold, long JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM) and short high-tech names like Amazon.com Inc. (AMZN) and Google Inc. (NASDAQ: GOOG). He also mentioned he likes natural gas here and he is short crude oil. Adami likes natural gas play Apache Corporation (APA) around $94.
POPS&DROPS
POPS- E*Trade Financial Corporation (ETFC) traded up 10%. The Walt Disney Company (DIS) traded up 2%. Macke explained that during a recession it’s not a great time to be long DIS. HONDA MOTOR CO. LTD. (HMC) traded up 4%. Najarian says U.S. sales are strong for HMC. Pacific Ethanol Inc. (PEIX) traded up 11%. Macke says take your profits this stock is last year’s fad. The Boeing Company (BA) traded up 2%. Adami thinks BA has a cheap valuation and the stock is a long term hold. Crocs Inc. (CROX) traded up 6%. Finerman likes the stock and she disclosed she is long and hanging on to it through earnings.
DROPS- Eastman Kodak Company (EK) traded down 3%. Adami says margins are lousy at EK and investors should avoid the stock. Tesoro Corporation (TSO) and Valero Corporation (VLO) both fell 2%. Finerman says take some profits these stocks have had a huge run. Align Technology Inc. (ALGN) plunged 14%. Najarian explained that if the U.S. economy is slowing than people will cut back on straightening their teeth.
Trader Radar
The Tupperware Brands Corporation (TUP) traded almost five times its average daily volume Wednesday.
Final Trade
Macke would sell the The Retail HOLDRS Trust (RTH) Thursday. Adami favors Public Service Enterprise Group Inc. (PEG). Finerman recommends Altria Group Inc. (MO). Najarian likes E*Trade Financial Corporation (ETFC) for a trade Thursday.

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