During the holiday season we at Madd Money would like to wish all of our readers a happy and safe holiday season. To everyone who strives to keep up with Cramer’s show and Fast Money we thank you for reading and wish you success in your trading during the new year.
Posted on Dec 31, 2007 in Uncategorized -
Word On The Street
Light trading ruled the day in the stock market Friday. The Dow finished up 6 points and the Nasdaq closed down 2 points. Guy Adami was surprised that the bears didn’t knock the market down 200 points with the light volume. He was encouraged the market was able to hold off any material selling pressure. Pete Najarian liked the action in the Nasdaq stocks especially the strength in the four horsemen. Jeff Macke explained that all we saw Friday was some jockeying by money managers before the end of the year. Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway Inc. (BRK.A) announced plans to start a municipal bond insurer. Finerman thinks this is bad news for MBIA Inc. (MBI) and Ambac Financial Group Inc. (ABK). Macke feels this move is genius for Buffett and he will kill the competition. Najarian says wait for any lift in MBIA and then put on an option put spread because the stock is in trouble. Gold trades up 3.3% and the dollar drops the lowest level against the Euro since 2006. Adami thinks the dollar will rally in 2008 and he continues to be bearish on gold at the levels. Najarian favors the commodities stocks especially the names tied to coal like Peabody Energy Corp (BTU) and Joy Global Inc. (JOYG). Retail stocks fell this week off of disappointing Christmas sales. Macke explained it’s late to the party to short the retail stocks but that doesn’t make them good buys. He mentioned a trade might be worth taking in the The Retail HOLDRS Trust (RTH), which tends to trend up in January. Japan’s benchmark index fell 11% in 2007 for its first loss in 5 years. Adami mentioned that Japan’s ETF iShares MSCI Japan Index Fund (EWJ) trades in a range from $13 to $15. He feels the EWJ is dead money for 2008. Najarian prefers China to Japan and he likes playing it with China Mobile Limited (CHL), Apple Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL), Research In Motion Limited (RIMM), Cisco Systems Inc. (CSCO) and Juniper Networks Inc. (JNPR). The Finish Line Inc. (FINL) plunges 24% after a judge rules it must complete the $1.5 billion deal for Genesco Inc. (GCO). Finerman explained that Finish Line is now forced to do a deal that will bankrupt them. She says if you want to play this dicey mess use options only. Macke called the deal a “stink show”. Cal-Maine Foods Inc. (CALM) explodes higher after second-quarter profits jumped sixfold. The stock is up 218% for the year. Najarian explained the amazing part of this company is that they ship eggs all over the world.
WORD ON THE STREET VIDEO
Top Stocks Of 2007
The biggest winners for the S&P 500 in 2007 were Jacobs Engineering Group Inc. (JEC) up 144%, National Oilwell Varco Inc. (NOV) up 141%, Amazon.com Inc. (AMZN) up 139%, Apple Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL) up 134% and MEMC Electronic Materials Inc. (WFR) up 131%. What is the trade? Adami explained that the valuation on Jacobs Engineering is getting rich, but he would look to buy on any pullback. He feels the infrastructure story is the real deal. Najarian loves Amazon and Apple and he sees no reason for either of these stocks to pullback. Macke thinks the bears are dead wrong on Amazon and he wouldn’t short the stock. Finerman mentioned she is worried that Apple is priced for perfection. Najarian likes MEMC Electronics for a way to play the solar sector. Adami also likes National-Oilwell Varco on any pullbacks.
TOP STOCK VIDEO
Worst Stocks Of 2007
The worst performing stocks for the S&P 500 in 2007 were E*TRADE Financial Corporation (ETFC) down 83%, Countrywide Financial Corporation (CFC) down 79%, Circuit City Stores Inc. (CC) down 77%, Washington Mutual Inc. (WM) down 70% and MBIA Inc. (MBI) down 70%. Adami says take a look at E*TRADE for a possible takeover play, but if it doesn’t happen it’s a dead stock this year. Macke thinks Circuit City is going to zero and will be booted from the S&P 500 in 2008.
WORST STOCK VIDEO
Analyst Contrarian Trade
A study recently showed that if you buy the stocks that analysts say will be the worst performing Dow components for 2008 you can make money. The stocks that analysts are bearish on for 2008 are General Motors Corporation (GM), Pfizer Inc. (PFE), Caterpillar Inc. (CAT), Dupont (DD) and Citigroup Inc. (C). Adami loves Pfizer and he thinks the stock will trade to $35. Macke likes Caterpillar and he thinks it’s bizarre that the analysts hate it.
ANALYST VIDEO
Tech Comeback Kids
Microsoft Corporation (MSFT), Intel Corporation (INTC) and Oracle Corporation (ORCL) all put in a strong performance in 2007. Are these stocks worth betting on for 2008? What is the trade? Macke thinks these companies are the technology survivors and are all buys. He advised that investors don’t bet against this group. Adami continues to favor Microsoft and he thinks that $32 will be strong support for the stock.
TECH VIDEO
Quicker Than The Ticker
On Dec. 17th Najarian said buy Amazon.com Inc. (AMZN). He was dead right and the stock traded up 12% since his recommendation. On Dec. 3rd Macke recommended Take-Two Interactive Software Inc. (TTWO). Take-Two has risen 15% since Macke’s call. On Dec 18th Adami picked Joy Global Inc. (JOYG). Adami was on the money and JOYG went up 19% since his call. On Nov 26th Finerman recommended shorting Big Lots Inc. (BIG). Finerman nailed the call and Big Lot fell 21% since her call.
Fast Fire
On December 6th, Najarian recommended buying Target Corporation (TGT), but he was off the mark and Target fell 8% since his call. Najarian still likes the valuation on Target and he suggested investors stay with the stock. On December 5th, Finerman advised investors to avoid Solarfun Power Holdings Co. Ltd. (SOLF). She was dead wrong and the stock soared trading up 44% since her call. Finerman still thinks the stock is overvalued and she isn’t changing her tune.
FAST FIRE VIDEO
Happy 52-Week High The Mosaic Company (MOS)
POPS&DROPS
The following POPS&DROPS highlights the stocks that made extreme moves for the week.
POPS- CDC Corporation (CHINA) traded up 23% after insiders bought almost 500,000 shares. Najarian likes that insiders were buying stock. United States Steel Corporation (X) traded up 2%. Adami likes X. Global Payments Inc. (GPN) traded up 5%. Najarian thinks GPN will report a good number next Thursday. Amazon.com Inc. (AMZN) traded up 4%. Macke doesn’t understand why people are shorting this AMZN. DSW Inc. (DSW) traded up 9% after Jay Schottenstein, Chairman of American Eagle, reported he holds a 14% stake in DSW. Finerman disclosed she owns DSW. Checkpoint Systems Inc. (CKP) traded up 13% after guiding up for 2008 earnings. NetSuite Inc. (N) traded up 8%. Najarian disclosed he sold out of his position Friday, but would look for a pullback to get back in.
DROPS- KB Home (KBH) fell 9%. Adami thinks KB Home is a lousy company. Mattel Inc. (MAT) fell 7%. Macke says Mattel is a sell. The Gap Inc. (GPS) fell 3% after 16,000 boys winter jackets were recalled due to a faulty drawstring. Simon Property Group Inc. (SPG). Finerman disclosed she is short SPG and she still sees more room to the downside.
POPS&DROPS VIDEO
Final Trade
Adami picked Deere & Company (DE). Finerman recommends shorting Big Lots Inc. (BIG). Najarian likes Caterpillar Inc. (CAT).
FINAL TRADE VIDEO
Posted on Dec 28, 2007 in Fast Money Recap -
Posted on Dec 28, 2007 in Uncategorized -
Today was about teaching the viewer to invest like a pro. There are a lot of money losing mistakes that can be avoided. Amateurs who invest in their spare time can make more than the professionals according to Jim. There were five mistakes that amateurs make that pros do not that were pointed out. First amateurs are always fully invested with no cash left on the side. Money managers always have cash in their portfolios. If you do not have cash in your portfolio you need to sell something, if you do not have cash available you are in the wrong. This capital can be used to profit from declines in the market. It should be used to take advantage of selloffs. 10% of the portfolio should be cash and once at 5% the only circumstance where you should use that money is to buy stocks. The second mistake is when an amateur looks at a stock and thinks about the upside. Cramer told us that pros do not do this. A pro thinks about the downside. Market players expect stocks to go lower and consider the downside and what protections are in place. Companies with a big buyback leave a cushion to limit downside. Dividends are also important not as income but because they attract investors. If you have interest in a stock you know the bull case for it but you need to look beyond this. The third lesson was that you “have to know your own limitations.” In investing terms this means that pros try not to invest in things they do not know or understand. If you do not know or can not explain what a company does, how it makes money, do not invest in it. He told us “that if you listen to the conference call and come away more confused than enlightened, how will you know if it is a good call or not?” There are plenty of stocks out there that you do understand and those should be bought. Fourth on the list was, “amateurs worry they are not making enough money, while pros worry they are making too much.” By taking on too much risk you can make a ton of money and this is a major problem. Making too much money is a sign that your portfolio is out of whack and you are taking on too much risk. Last “amateurs try to game quarterly earnings reports to catch a quick gain.” Professionals on the other hand “learn to start living and stop worrying about quarterly reports.” Never buy anticipating the quarter, instead actively avoid buying right before the quarter or during earnings season. This was all meant so that you do not make snap decisions about stocks. You should make well considered decisions that take a lot longer according to Cramer.
NO QUARTER VIDEO
NEGATIVE CHARGE VIDEO
PRO VISIONS VIDEO
BLISS VIDEO
Posted on Dec 28, 2007 in Uncategorized -
Posted on Dec 28, 2007 in Uncategorized -
Word On The Street
The stock market was hit with turbulence Thursday as news broke of the assassination of former Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto of Pakistan, more write-downs from the financials and a poor durable goods number. The Dow fell 192 points and the Nasdaq lost 47 points. Guy Adami thinks the path of least resistance is lower for the stock market. Pete Najarian said it was a perfect storm for the bears on Thursday with the assassination, poor durable goods and oil trading back towards $100. He recommended lightening up on some of the highly valued solar stocks. Karen Finerman mentioned the consumer confidence number came out and stronger than expected. She was surprised that retail stocks didn’t catch a bid off that strength. Adami highlighted strength in some consumer product names like Unilever plc (UL), The Procter & Gamble Company (PG) and Altria Group Inc. (MO). Goldman Sachs Group raised its write-down estimates for Citigroup Inc. (C), Merrill Lynch & Co. Inc. (MER) and JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM). Finerman explained that if she was running Citigroup she would cut the dividend by 40%. Adami again recommended U.S. Bancorp (USB) as the best way to play financials. Najarian likes Fannie Mae (FNM) and Freddie Mac (FRE). Crude oil trades to $96.62 on inventory numbers and off the Benazir Bhutto assassination in Pakistan. Najarian, Adami and Macke all like Tesoro Corporation (TSO). Oracle Corporation (ORCL) displayed some strength Thursday as Technology stocks were hit hard. Adami thinks Oracle is inexpensive and has more room on the upside. Najarian mentioned that Morgan Stanley says Oracle is their “Top Pick” for 2008. Apple Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL) and News Corporation (NWS) closed a deal to rent Fox films through iTunes. Najarian says Apple will see some pressure through the end of the year as investors take some profits. Macke feels that Netflix Inc. (NFLX), Blockbuster Inc. (BBI) and Sony Corporation (SNE) will all be left behind in this wave of the digital revolution. Wall Street Journal columnist Walt Mossberg gave a great review to Dell Inc’s (DELL) new XPS One PC. Adami explained that Mossberg said the New Dell PC is Apple-like in its design and performance. Adami thinks Dell is worth owning here. Macke says the new Dell PC has more risk as a business model than before.
WORD ON THE STREET VIDEO
Financial Trade 2008
Brian Schaeffer, Van Der Moolen Capital Markets Managing Director, joined the “Fast Money” crew to discuss his take on the financials for 2008. Schaeffer is very worried with write-downs now up to $80 billion and predictions of $250 billion swirling around the Street. He thinks the way to trade the write-down problem is to short the Financial Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLF). Schaeffer mentioned that Citigroup Inc. (C) will trade down to $22-$25 and if you own the stock sell it. Najarian wasn’t as bearish and he says he likes the investment banks. He thinks the core numbers are Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (GS), Morgan Stanley (MS) and Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. (LEH) were phenomenal, but he wouldn’t bottom pick the stocks.
FINANCIAL VIDEO
Drug Trade 2008
CNBC Pharmaceuticals Reporter Mike Huckman joined the “Fast Money” crew to discuss his take on the drugs stocks for 2008. Huckman explained that the FDA is expected to approve a new drug-coated stent from Medtronic Inc. (MDT) and in a few months they might approve another one from Abbot Laboratories (ABT). Huckman says this is a big deal because it will raise the competition in the drug-coated stent market. Huckman mentioned that the FDA is expected to make a decision on approval for Genentech Inc’s (DNA) breast cancer drug Avastin. Analysts are predicting that this approval would add $1 billion in revenue for Genentech. Najarian prefers Biogen Idec Inc. (BIIB) over Genentech. On a final note, Huckman advised investors to watch Dendreon Corporation (DNDN), which is set to release preliminary data on prostate cancer drug Provenge in the middle of the year. Huckman speculated that if the data shows Provenge extends the lives of patients it could receive FDA approval. Najarian says an approval would be huge and the stock could return to $20 if it happens.
DRUG VIDEO
Dennis Gartman’s 2008 Outlook
Dennis Gartman, author of The Gartman Letter joined the “Fast Money” crew to discuss his take for 2008. Gartman explained he continues to be bullish on gold and he thinks it will trade to $1000 in a year or two. He also thinks the uptrend will continue in the grain markets for wheat, corn and soybeans. Gartman mentioned he sold some Potash Corporation of Saskatchewan Inc. (POT) on Thursday into strength, but if the stock were to decline $10-$15 he would come right back and buy it.
GARTMAN VIDEO
POPS&DROPS
POPS- Freddie Mac (FRE) traded up 4% after the lender exceeded its capital requirements in the third quarter. Adami thinks the stock is going lower. Warner Music Group Corp. (WMG) traded up 2% after the record publishing firm added its catalogue to Amazon’s download service. Macke implied that a bottom could be forming here for WMG. Cirrus Logic Inc. (CRUS) traded up 4% after billionaire investor George Soros increased his stake to 4.6 million shares from 679,000 shares. Najarian doesn’t like the industry and feels the stock will drop on Friday.
DROPS- Noven Pharmaceuticals Inc. (NOVN) fell 1% after the firm received a tentative FDA approval for their new bipolar treatment Stavzor. Najarian explained a tentative agreement means nothing right now. Simon Properties Group Inc. (SPG) fell 3%. Finerman thinks SPG is safe short. Sallie Mae (SLM) fell 11% after the student loan lender announced a $2.5 billion stock sale. Macke says get out of this stock there is no bottom. The Boeing Company (BA) fell 1% off the drop in durable goods orders. Adami says the stock is cheap on a valuation basis around $88.
POPS&DROPS VIDEO
Final Trade
Macke says take a five-day weekend from the markets. Najarian recommended Archer Daniels Midland Company (ADM). Adami likes Intel Corporation (INTC). Finerman favors staying short the iShares Dow Jones U.S. Real Estate Index Fund (IYR).
FINAL TRADE VIDEO
Posted on Dec 27, 2007 in Fast Money Recap -
Selloff strategies were provided in today’s special. Instead of panicking you should see an opportunity. The last 5% of your portfolio should be in cash so you can pounce when needed and with a possible correction coming, having 10% may be better.
SELLOFF STRATEGIES VIDEO
A list of stocks that you want to own should be made.
HOUSE OF CORRECTIONS VIDEO
How to use selloffs to your advantage.
SELLOFF STRATEGIES VIDEO PART TWO
Beware of damaged companies.
DOWN DAY VIDEO
Supermarket and drug stocks should be considered if a selloff is brought about by a slowdown.
CAUSE AND EFFECT VIDEO
Posted on Dec 27, 2007 in Uncategorized -
Posted on Dec 27, 2007 in Uncategorized -
Word On The Street
Post-holiday trading had the stock market finishing little changed on Wednesday. The Dow finished up 2 points and the Nasdaq closed up 10 points. Pete Najarian explained that the department store stocks disappointed, but the global growth story stocks like The Manitowoc Company Inc. (MTW), Deere & Company (DE), Monsanto Company (MON) and The Mosaic Company (MOS) continued to work. Jeff Macke noticed that some of the trading was tax-loss selling throughout Wednesday. Target Corporation (TGT) cut December same-store sales expectations and the stock traded down 2.5%. Finerman mentioned that she has a position in Wal-Mart Stores Inc. (WMT) and she is hoping for a good sales report from the retail giant. Najarian says that Target is a great retailer and he wants to see insiders start buying stock before he jumps in. Macke says buy any dips on Costco Wholesale Corporation (COST) and play Best Buy Co. Inc. (BBY) for a trade. Warren Buffett announced a $4.5 billion stake in private conglomerate Marmon Holdings out of Chicago. Adami highlighted Copper Industries Ltd. (CBE) which is similar to Marmon and might be a stock other Wall Street whales are looking at. Merrill Lynch & Co. Inc. (MER) sold a $6.2 billion of stock to the Singapore Government Fund and Davis Select Advisors. Billionaire investor Joseph Lewis also raised his stake in The Bear Stearns Companies Inc. (BSC) to 9.5%. Adami continues to like U.S. Bancorp (USB) in the banking sector. He mentioned that Warren Buffett has accumulated a big stake in USB. Macke reminded viewers that the Wall Street whales are getting better deals than the general public in the investment banks, so why bother trading these stocks. Crude oil traded past $96 on Wednesday after Turkish planes bombed some Kurdish targets in northern Iraq. Adami likes Tesoro Corporation (TSO) on a valuation basis. Najarian favors the oil service sector and thinks investors should also take a look at Joy Global Inc. (JOYG), Peabody Energy Corp. (BTU) and Arch Coal Inc. (ACI) for a play on coal. Walt Disney’s “National Treasure: Book of Secrets” brought in $65 million for Christmas box office sales. Najarian mentioned the movie was great. Macke thinks The Walt Disney Company (DIS) is a buy.
WORD ON THE STREET VIDEO
Warren Buffett Deal Play
Warren Buffett announced a $4.5 billion deal with the privately held Marmon Group. The deal amounts to a 60% controlling stake for Buffett. What is the trade? Jon Najarian joined the “Fast Money” crew to discuss his take on Buffett’s deal. Najarian says the way to play this deal is to get long transportation stocks and water stocks, which make up a big part of Marmon’s business segments. His picks in the transportation sector are FreightCar America Inc. (RAIL), The Greenbrier Companies Inc. (GBX), Trinity Industries Inc. (TRN) and American Railcar Industries Inc. (ARII). In the water sector he likes Flowserve Corporation (FLS), Consolidated Water Co. Ltd. (CWCO), PowerShares Water Resources Portfolio (PHO), Claymore ETF Trust (CGW) and Powershares Global ETF Trust (PIO). Macke explained that if you like what Warren Buffett is doing in terms of takeovers then buy Berkshire Hathaway Inc. (BRK.A) on dips. Adami favors Trinity Industries out of the bunch.
BUFFETT VIDEO
Commercial Real Estate Trade
Lots of hedge funds are placing bets that the real estate slump will spill over into the commercial real estate market. What is the trade? Finerman explained that if you want to follow the hedge funds, bet against Simon Property Group Inc. (SPG), Taubman Centers Inc. (TCO) and iShares Dow Jones US Real Estate Index Fund (IYR). Adami thinks Simon Property Group could have more room to fall.
COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE VIDEO
Last-Minute Trade
According to research firm, Shoppertrak, last-minute purchases by consumers pushed sales up a monster 19% over the weekend. The data from Shoppertrak suggest that the most popular purchases were for electronics and luxury items. What is the trade? Macke favors Activision Inc. (ATVI), Take-Two Interactive Software Inc. (TTWO), THQ Inc. (THQI), Research In Motion Limited and Costco Wholesale. Adami likes Saks Incorporated (SKS) and he thinks a takeover is imminent for the high-end retailer store. Finerman also likes Saks and Children’s Place Retail Stores Inc. (PLCE). Najarian recommends AT&T Inc. (T), Amazon.com Inc. (AMZN), Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL) and Research In Motion Limited.
LAST MINUTE VIDEO
Happy 52-Week High Unilever N.V. (UN)
POPS&DROPS
POPS- Hess Corporation (HES) traded up 2%. United States Steel Corporation (X) traded up 4%. Adami likes the stock and thinks it’s a takeover target. Joy Global Inc. (JOYG) traded up 4%. Adami likes JOYG. Solarfun Power Holdings Co. Ltd. (SOLF) traded up 8%. Najarian says if you’re in SOLF do it with options because of the volatility. Agrium Inc. (AGU) traded up 4%.
DROPS- The Gap Inc. (GPS) fell 2%. Macke thinks The Gap will work as a stock in 2008. NetSuite Inc. (N) fell 7%. Najarian owns NetSuite and he feels in the long-term it will trade higher. RadioShack Corporation (RSH) fell 4%. Macke isn’t impressed with Radio Shack’s turnaround story. Big Lots Inc. (BIG) fell 6%. Finerman says stay away. Family Dollar Stores Inc. (FDO) fell 4% after Bear Stearns Chief Investment Officers made some bearish comments on low-end retailers. Adami thinks FDO goes lower. The Men’s Warehouse Inc. (MW) fell 6%. Macke recommended walking away from this stock. Office Depot Inc. (ODP) fell 3%. Finerman feels that Office Depot is getting interesting.
POPS&DROPS VIDEO
Fac2Face
Gary writes, “What do you think the 6 month to 1 year outlook is for Circuit City Stores Inc. (CC)?” Macke predicted pain and said why even bother with CC. David writes, “I watched Apple Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL) break out to an all-time high Wednesday, but then retreat back below $200. Is it a buy?” Najarian says only play Apple with options at these levels. He mentioned that he likes the stock going forward with MacWorld approaching. Randy writes, “I have heard the time to get into financials in this market is when they cut dividends. Do you agree with this strategy?” Adami says if Citigroup Inc. (C) cuts their dividend that will be the time to get into C. He says if you want to play the banks US Bancorp is the best play. Nick writes, “I want to get your view on a possible short squeeze rally on MBIA Inc. (MBI) Thursday.” Finerman disclosed that she covered her short position in MBIA on Wednesday.
FACE2FACE VIDEO
Final Trade
Najarian prefers Alpha Natural Resources Inc. (ANR) calling it a takeover target. Finerman recommends Children’s Place Retail Stores (PLCE). Adami picked Western Digital Corporation (WDC). Macke says get long Costco Wholesale Corporation (COST) on any dips.
FINAL TRADE VIDEO
Posted on Dec 26, 2007 in Fast Money Recap -
Posted on Dec 26, 2007 in Uncategorized -