Archive for August 2006

expandSecular Growth Trade

Now that market players just had a great week, they want what’s hot, but we’re in for three more months where “boring is king,” Jim said. You’re either playing defense or losing money, and right now consistent secular growth stocks are the way to go, he said. Jim’s pick for this type of trade is The Hershey (HSY) which he thinks has low risk and high reward. Jim thinks HSY has $2 down and $15 up for the risk/reward profile of the trade. Wachovia recently downgraded Hershey because of its subpar first-half sales, but Jim believes Wachovia is wrong. Hershey is below Wachovia’s price target, so it’s not making any sense, he said. Also, UBS reduced its price target for Hershey due to the hot weather and high gasoline prices, but according to Jim, that doesn’t make sense either.

expandBad CEOs

Usually when a CEO leaves a company, that is bad news. But some CEOs are so bad, that if they leave “for family reasons,” it would make their companies’ stocks surge Jimmy stated. Jim named off five CEOs whose departures would cause their stock to shot up.

  1. Kevin Rollins Dell Inc (DELL)
  2. George Buckley 3M Company (NYSE:MMM)
  3. Michael Cherkasky Marsh & Mclennan Companies Inc (MMC)
  4. Andrea Jung Avon Products Inc (NYSE:AVP)
  5. Ronald Zarrella Bausch & Lomb Inc (BOL)

Jim also mentioned The Home Depot Inc’s (HD) CEO Robert Nardelli. Jim called him poison and said the stock could go up $5 if he leaves. The worst CEO on Jim’s list is Peter Dolan of Bristol-Myers Squibb Co. (BMY) which Jim owns for his trust. Why does he own this? “This guy can’t stop getting his company into trouble,” he said. Bristol-Myers is losing patent protection on its biggest drug, Plavix, five years early, Jimmy said, calling Dolan a “value destroyer.” He predicted the stock could go from $21 to $26 when the news comes over the tape that Dolan “wants to spend more time with his kids.”

expandRadio Recap

Dell Inc (DELL) reporting might have had you worried about PC’s but Hewlett-Packard (HPQ) should change that view. The NASDAQ being up is in part due to HPQ’s performance. The problems aren’t with PC’s but with DELL. HPQ beat forecasts and expectations and they have a great outlook. The media seems content with tearing apart every win but with DELL imploding Jim said to buy some HPQ. Housing is anther area that is taking a beating. Housing according to the media is finished but with the Fed stopping raising the rates not all is doomed. Masco Corp(MAS), American Standard Companies (ASD) and Black & Decker (BDK) were all mentioned as a few that are moving up. If the Fed helps us and stops raising rates people will start fixing up their houses and they will use products from these companies. People should change their thinking that when a stock goes down the stock is flawed. ATP Oil & Gas (NASDAQ:ATPG) was featured last night on the TV show in an interview with the CFO of the company. The stock has been getting hit but we found out that main share holders were increasing positions. This tells us that there is nothing wrong with the stock. ATPG will move higher when energy goes up or with a takeover bid. Merck & Co (MRK) was the stock that people most wanted to hear about this week. Right now MRK is a good buy after losing a big verdict. They are going to contest every one of these verdicts. MRK is trying hard to change the notion that drug companies are the bad guys. The new CEO is a winner also so Jim would “be a buyer.”
Caller Questions
General Motors Corp (GM) is not finished and is doing everything right. We we told that management isn’t clueless. Garmin (GRMN) was called the best growing tech company, it is cheap and now is the time to buy. It would be wise to sell Whole Foods Market Inc (WFMI). Take some profits here an move on. Bristol-Myers Squibb Co (BMY) will probably not have a dividend cut. Jim believes the company will sell itself before this happens. He said “I’m a seasoned pain taker and try to take a six to 18-month view, and for BMY mine is positive.”
E*Trade (ET) and Ameritrade (AMTD) will beat numbers after benefiting from this rally.
St. Jude Medical (NYSE:TJ) will go to $40. Hold Schlumberger (NYSE:SLB) and actually buy some. Oil has come down but we have not found any so look to buy some drillers.

expandStop Trading

Retailers Lowe’s (NYSE:LOW), Gymboree Corporation (GYMB) and Children’s Place (NASDAQ:PLCE) should get a lift from the retail rally. Recently we have seen “the consumer isn’t dead” run up, this leaves Jim wondering why LOW is in “the penalty box.” Rival Home Depot Inc (HD) has seen tough times recently and LOW is the anti-HD. GYMB and PLCE are back to school plays with a rally in Abercrombie & Fitch Co (ANF) already passed.
Alternative energy plays Jim called “smart” were Archer Daniels Midland Company (ADM) and Monsanto Company (NYSE:MON). Analysts that are against MON are going to “make you poor.”
Views sould be wary of trading the Oil Service HOLDRs (OIH). Crude is down to $70 a barrel and hedge funds are trying to manipulate the OIH.
Six Flags Inc (SIX) brought Bugs Bunny and Daffy Duck to the floor of the NYSE for the closing bell but groups of teens seem to be holding attendance down, so Jim warned to watch out.

expandLightning Round

Bullish
America Movil S.A. de C.V (AMX), Oracle Corp (ORCL), Sears Holdings Corp (SHLD), Commerce Group Inc (CGI), Corning Incorporated (GLW), Airgas (ARG), News Corporation (NWS.A), Berkshire Hathaway Inc (BRK.A) and Lowe’s (NYSE:LOW).

Bearish
Regeneron Pharmaceuticals (NASDAQ:REGN) and Brocade Communications Systems Inc (BRCD).

Sudden Death

Bullish
McDonald’s Corp (NYSE:MCD), Applied Materials Inc (AMAT) and NightHawk Radiology Holdings, Inc. (NHWK).

Bearish
Buffalo Wild Wings (BWLD) and Cree Inc (CREE)

expandMcDonald’s is King

Today McDonald’s Corp (NYSE:MCD) was named the king of fast food in the first segment. Two other fast food chains you should avoid are Burger King Holdings, Inc. (BKC) and Wendy’s International (NYSE:WEN). To help us make a decision we have to look at what a good fast food company has compared with what a bad one is missing. A good one should meet or beat its estimates, have consistent strong growth and the ability to develop new concepts to continue growing.
BKC is missing all of these qualities. If not for Vonage Holdings Corp. (VG), BKC would be the worst IPO of 2006, according to Jim. After going public BKC missed numbers in its first quarter, this usually screws a company for years to come. Same store sales were not impressive at 2% either. People have started talking about a turnaround story but management won’t talk about recent same store sales.
WEN is a sell but not on the BKC level, they have actually delivered their best sales figures in years. WEN bought Baja Fresh and drove it into the ground and for this reason he sees them as a sell. The rational is “when a company buys antoher concept and destroys it that is generally not a good thing.”
MCD is a good play because business is international, making it a good “weak dollar stock.” Also they have been able to do something unique with Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc (CMG). A mature company cannot usually develop a new concept but they did and did it right, so maybe they can do it again. MCD is a “triple buy and not just because of its fries.”

expandMonsanto Company

Today we took a minute to think about buying a stock the Street hates, it is called Monsanto Company (NYSE:MON). MON is making an acquisition that the market thinks they are overpaying for. The problem is that the market thinks this is a boring agricultural company when it is really a biotech stock. This is the most “misunderstood” stock out there. They design the best corn and soybean seeds and it is also a play on alternative fuels. Corn for their ethanol and soy for biodiesel. They are buying Delta and Pine Land Company (DLP) which is also a seed company. Jim said “this biotech company is designing and selling the seeds of the future” and it is a “steal” right now.

expandAm I Diversified

  • Textron (TXT), Medis Technologies (MDTL), ConocoPhillips (COP), Goldman Sachs (GS) and MEMC Electronic (WFR). This person has too much alternative energy, Jim thinks a health care stock is in order.
  • Chico’s FAS (CHS), Ameritrade (AMTD), Rentech (RTK), Amazon.com (AMZN) and Martha Stewart Living (MSO). AMZN and CHS are both retailers. This person should sell one and buy health care, Bristol-Myers (BMY) was given.

expandATP Oil & Gas Interview

Chief Financial Officer Albert Reese from ATP Oil & Gas (NASDAQ:ATPG) joined Jim today. ATPG is levered to naural gas and the company has huge numbers but they seem to not be going up and Reese said that the company has the natural gas and also a third of production in the North Sea and a third of their production in the Gulf of Mexico. Wall Street wants to sell this stock but Reese said that main shareholders have increased positions.

expandRadio Recap

Consumer Isn’t Dead
Rising interest rates and gas prices prompted analysts to proclaim the consumer dead, but he’s very much alive and buying hand over fist, Jim Cramer said on his radio show Wednesday. Jim mentioned how retailers like Federatred Department Stores (FD), TJX Companies (TJX), J.C. Penny (JCP), Home Depot Inc (HD), and Best Buy Co Inc (BBY) are all doing good right now.
“Employment has always been the driver of consumer spending,” and employment has the most direct ties to retail, he said. Because employment is strong in the U.S. and there are a lot of jobs, people feel comfortable about spending some money. Therefore, don’t get caught up with what the media is saying because most of the press doesn’t know what moves stocks and doesn’t do homework, Jim said. “There is a legion of lunacy on Wall Street,” he said. As oil has been dropping the last few days and natural gas is under some pressure, market players are abandoning anything that has to do with oil, natural gas or drilling, he said. Jim called this stupid. “People don’t realize that oils and oil drillers are going to make fortunes,” he said. It doesn’t matter that oil and natural gas are going down because the world’s oil problems have not all of a sudden been resolved, Jim said. Nor has the U.S. found an oil reserve larger than the one in the Middle East or an alternative source of energy that everyone has agreed to use, he added. Jim told investors to look into Ensco International (ESV). The company’s site posts the day rates of borrowing rigs to drill oil. These rates are going higher and higher, even though people keep saying they are falling, Jim said.

Media War

“We have a real love/hate relationship between companies and the media,” said Jim. Jim mentioned how companies are buying back stock to fight the negative press. He gave the example of The Home Depot Inc (HD) which bought back 17% of there shares and Time Warner Inc (TWX) is also buying back large amounts. The media recently bashed DE saying that housing was going to hurt the consumer business. Buybacks are being ignored by the media and press, said Jimbo, who added that it will matter one day, as cash won’t do as well as stocks over the long term, Jimmy said. “Oil is what drives our nation,” he said. “We consume 25% of the world’s daily output, yet we are dependent on other nations.” The federal government hasn’t provided a healthy oil strategy and instead is sitting on the sidelines, he said. Pennsylvania’s Governor Ed Rendell was on Cramer’s “Mad Money” TV show Tuesday talking about turning coal into gasoline. “The U.S. is the Saudi Arabia of coal,” Jim said, and Rendell believes that we can achieve energy independence through coal. However, U.S. Energy Secretary Samuel Bodman won’t give Rendell the time to sit with him and discuss this, he said. If the Democrats capture the house, Jim fears that this process will be stopped. This window of opportunity is closing, and the federal government should step in here, Jim said. Jim likes coal play like Peabody Energy (NYSE:BTU) and Arch Coal (ACI), and also Renetech Inc (RTK).

Caller Questions
Jim thinks that Crystallex International Corporation (AMEX:KRY) could double or tipple if Hugo Chavez gives it the OK. Jim told another caller that Microsoft (MSFT) will go up $5 once Vista comes out. Starbucks (SBUX) will go to $35. Jim thinks that Palm Inc (PLAM) is ready to run. A caller asked about UnitedHealth Group Inc (UNH) which he owns for his trust. Jim thinks the stock has no business at $48. He recognizes that the stock has “options pressure” and said that Wednesday has been a “particularly frustrating day” as both Cigna Corp (CI) and Aetna Inc (AET) are up. Jim said he is not worried and believes that UnitedHealth will regain its greatness. Jim told another caller to hold on to CarMax (KMX) and told another caller to buy Nvidia (NVDA). Jim told the last caller to keep buying General Motors Corp (GM).