Archive for May 2006

expandLightning Round

Bullish

Energy Partners Ltd (EPL), CBOT Holdings Inc (BOT), J.P Morgan Chase Co (JPM), Citigroup Inc (C), Bank of America Corp (BAC), Checkfree Corp (CKFR), BP (NYSE:BP), ConocoPhillips (NYSE:COP), Chevron Corp (CVX), MasterCard Inc (MA), Schering-Plough Corporation (SGP), Pioneer Drilling (AMEX:PDC) and Hershey Company (HSY).

Bearish

Acadia Pharmaceuticals Inc (ACAD), Wachovia (WB), William Wrigley (WWY) and Urban Outfitters Inc (URBN).

expandAm I Diversified

The first caller’s holdings were Halliburton (HAL), Walt Disney (DIS), Rite Aid (RAD), Bancolombia SA (CIB), and Grey Wolf Inc (GW). Jimbo likes HAL, RAD, and CIB but he likes CBS Corp (CBS) more than DIS. Jimmy thinks that GW and HAL do a bit of sector overlap so he told the caller to sell GW and buy a defense contractor. The next caller from Oregon had Aegon NV (AEG), Citigroup Inc (C), Microsoft (MSFT), Revlon (REV), and Comcast Corp (CMCSA). Cramer likes Aegon. “That’s a company we don’t speak enough about.”He also liked Comcast and Citigroup, saying that “Comcast is kicking butt,” and that he “loved” Citigroup. Revlon? “That’s a dog that ought to merge with Vonage.” Jimmy made bearish comments on Microsoft, which he owns for his charitable trust. He told the caller he was diversified.

expandTop 5 Emerging Market Plays

Third world or more politically correct, emerging markets, were “en fuego” until three weeks ago. Jim talked about Zambia a bit but now we have a selloff. Is this a buying opportunity or a sign of a hurt market. When the Fed raises rates this would signal a kill off of emerging markets in the past. This is no longer the case. Conventional wisdom is wrong. In 1994 interest rates went from 3% to 6% and the distruction of the Mexican economy ruined the market. In 1998 trouble in the Russian and Chinese markets ruined the emerging markets there. No preconditions exist right now and BRIC countries will keep on chugging. These are safe and cheap right now. Before Jim gave us his top five emerging market stock picks he said not to invest in Avon Products Inc (NYSE:AVP) with the current management, not all are better than Procter & Gamble (PG) but some are, and here they are in no particular order:

  • Tata Motors Ltd (TTM) – Great secular growth story. Having a car in India is a status symbol and this is the car company people goto.
  • America Movil S.A. de C.V (AMX) – This is another secular growth story. There is no infrastructure in 3rd world countries and this makes cellular service needed. It is a status symbol also in these countries.
  • Homex Development Corp (NYSE:HXM) – Jim’s favorite homebuilder in Mexico. They have 71% growth yet they are down 19%.
  • Tele Norte Leste Participacoes SA (TNE) – Great wireless exposure. They pay a 5% dividend and look too keep paying well.
  • Bancolombia S.A. (CIB) – CIB has a video montage on the show and the stock is up from 18 to about 26 since Jim recommended it last summer. This stock is too good and too cheap. There is a revolution in credit in South American countries and CIB is the play.

Remember not to buy all at once, do your homework and buy in stages.

expandStop Trading

Jimbo was bullish on inside buying at Chesapeake Energy Corporation (CHK) and he thinks this is a signal that natural gas could bounce higher. In particular, buying by Chesapeake CEO Aubrey McClendon is bullish. “I’m going with him,” Jimmy said. “He has historically been very astute with his buying.” Jimbob made bullish comments about Sony Corp (SNE) on news that the company will sell $700 game console with a personal computer inside. Jimmy thinks that speculation by analyst that ATI Technologies Inc (ATYT) could be bought by Advanced Micro Devices Inc (AMD) sounds believable. Such calls “are not made idly. When you do that stuff they cut your head off,” Jimbob said. “I like the chatter. The stock has held up all day in a really doggy Nasdaq tape.” Jimmy thinks that CBOT Holdings Inc (BOT) should be bought. He compared how the NYSE Group Inc (NYX) which is up against the Nasdaq Stock Market (NDAQ) for listings doesn’t have pricing power while BOT just raised fees 20%. “It’s good to be a monopoly, Jim said.”

expandRadio Recap

Technical Analysis
Jimmy was out with comments on how the market is trading off of technical analysis. This is an amazing development because Jimmy has been a constant hater of TA even calling it voodoo. Nice to see Jimbo finally telling the truth. “Whenever there is volatility, investors look for any totem … anything that makes them feel less lonely, less fearful. And that’s what technical analysis is about. And that’s why technical analysis is leading the charge for the bounce today,” he said. Jim described technical analysis as a study of patterns that allow market technicians to divine the markets next move. They look at the chart of where the market has come from in order to forecast movements based on past trends, he said. Jimmy made sure to say he doesn’t use technical analysis as a basis for his trades, but he did say the information is helpful. He made not of how the S&P 500 went down huge last week and when it went down again on Tuesday it found support at a technical level from last week. The technicians saw that the old low level held its ground yesterday, so the market found some support, people decided it could be OK to get back in and stocks bounced back today, he said. Don’t get greedy during these technical rallies, Jimbo said. He believes that investors should sell a little into this strength. “I really and truly think that when we have any snapback rally, you have to unload,” he said. “This is not a great market,” he said, adding that there is no leadership and that market action has sometimes been led by speculation. Jimbob prefers markets that go up on a fundamental basis so he made sure to let his listeners know that he is taken money off the table for his trust.

Oil
Jimbob thinks now is the time to buy oil stocks for cheap. Jimmy wants to see crude prices stay high in order for these trades to work and he thinks that is about to happen. He mentioned the same problems he brought up yesterday like Iran, Venezuela, Nigerian rebels and production problems in Iraq as all reasons for oil to go higher. Jimmy made the shocking statement that he would be surprised if oil doesn’t hit $100 a barrel.

Bad Buybacks and Silly Vonage
Jimbo likes when companies do buybacks, but he doesn’t like when they borrow money to do it. Jimmy mentioned that Tribune Company (TRB) just did a silly buyback from borrowing money. The company’s fundamentals are “frankly awful,” he said. “What do I want from Tribune? I want growth. If you can’t give me growth, shut up.” He said that he would use any strength in the stock as an opportunity to sell. Jimmy was out dissing Vonage Holdings Corp (VG) for the disastrous IPO. Jimbo doesn’t like that Vonage is treating shareholders who use the Vonage better then shareholders who don’t. “So, in other words, if I use the phone system, I’m guaranteed. And if I just like idea of Vonage, I’m screwed.” He said that this is foul play and that all shareholders should be treated equal

Caller Questions
Jimmy told a caller not to worry about how Nabors Industries Ltd (NYSE:NBR) just took down debt to buyback its shares. He owns NBR for his trust. Jimbo thinks if he owned Cummins Inc. (NYSE:CMI) he would let it go. The company will probably have three good quarters in 2006, and then get hammered at the end of the year, he said. For wireless Jimbob likes Qualcomm (QCOM) which he owns for his trust over buying Chinese listed companies. He can’t trust the numbers in China. Jimmy dissed the woman who runs Xerox Corporation (XRX) Anne Mulcahy and said he would swap out of XRX for Hewlett-Packard (NYSE:HPQ). Jimmy told another caller to get out of Martha Stewart Living Omnimedia Inc (MSO) and ring the register. Jimbo made bullish comments on Manitowoc Company (MTW). Jimmy said nice things about Sony Corp (SNE) and he likes that the company has put computer capabilities into its game console. “I frankly am intrigued by this,” he said. The Japanese market has been down for days, and Jimbob said that Sony could rise when the overall market bounces. However, the only Japanese stock that he owns for is Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group Inc (MTU). Jimmy thinks this is a tough situation, he said that he would sell half of his position on the current strength, and let the rest be until the company reports earnings Thursday. Jimmy would sell some Oregon Steel (OS) because it’s up in a down market, but he does think the company is well positioned in the pipeline and rail markets. Finally he told a listener that Walgreen (NYSE:WAG) is ‘best of breed.’ The stock is at its 52-week low, the company is growing at 15% and the shares sell at 23 times earnings, so Jimbo said he would be a buyer of Walgreen.

expandLightning Round

Bullish
Halliburton (HAL), URS Corporation (URS), Enbridge Inc (ENB), Cedar Fair L.P. (FUN), NYSE Group Inc. (NYX), Nektar Therapeutics (NASDAQ:NKTR)
Hain Celestial Group Inc (NASDAQ:HAIN), Comcast Corp (CMCSA), Anheuser Busch (NYSE:BUD), PepsiCo (NYSE:PEP), Bank of America Corp (BAC), Citigroup Inc (C), Crystallex International Corp. (AMEX:KRY) and VeriFone Holdings (PAY)

Bearish
Maverick Tube Corporation (MVK), eBay Inc (EBAY), Marvell (MRVL), Oil States International Inc (OIS), Microsoft (MSFT), Six Flags Inc (PKS), Sealy Corporation (ZZ), Falconbridge Ltd (FAL), SunOpta (STKL), Marshall & Ilsley Corporation (MI) and IndyMac Bancorp (NDE).

expandTransmeridian Exploration

Transmeridian Exploration (TMY) CEO Lorrie Oliver joined Cramer today. TMY has a oil exploration and production business that operates mainly in Kazakhstan. TMY is undervalued according to Oliver and he thinks the political situation in the world supports growth. Lack of knowledge about TMY has hurt them but they continue to grow reserves. Cramer called them speculative at best.

expandWireless

Wireless home routing is the next big thing Cramer wants to play. Netgear (NTGR) is the best of breed in wireless Web as well as Internet phoning growth. They have a high cash position and market share is growing. NTGR made hooking your phone to the Internet easy Cramer called them “the Genghis Kahn of wireless routers.”

expandKinder Morgan Inc and Enbridge Inc

It has been reported that Kinder Morgan Inc (KMI) is going private and last week Cramer recommended the stock and it has gone up 18%. He called this the “largest leverage buyout ever.” The CEO has built this into a powerhouse and the pin action will lead you to Enbridge Inc (ENB). These companies build the longest pipelines in the world spanning Canada. ENB has a 3.5% dividend and it is cheap at around $30, Cramer sees it going to $40. Play the desperate need to get oil out of Canada, but don’t buy until 10:30 am on Thursday morning when buyers today and Wednesday get killed and have to sell.

expandLack of Leaders

Today Jim started the show by frying up bulls. This is the worst day he has ever seen because there is no good reason why the market is down. He said, “don’t run and hide.” In a terrible market you need a great leader and right now there isn’t one. All the past generals are dead, Cramer mentioned the likes of Cisco Systems (CSCO), Dell Inc (DELL), Microsoft (MSFT), Google (GOOG), biotech, Intel Corp (INTC), Broadcom (BRCM), Marvell Technology (MRVL), Wal-Mart Stores Inc (WMT) and General Motors Corp (GM) among others. None of these can lead the market out of the trouble it is in. There are two types of stocks, commodity stocks and recession stocks. When one goes up the other goes down. A commodity stock that Cramer likes is Clorox (CLX). Cramer mentioned PepsiCo (NYSE:PEP) and Kellogg Company (NYSE:K) as possible winners and Genetech Inc (DNA) might be a winner but it will probably get hit tomorrow. In this market be diversified, buy strong secular growers and hold them for when the smoke clears.